https://btcsignal.io/research.html Bitcoin research from thirteen indicators, ML-weighted into a composite. Methodology, backtests, and the parts that do not work, published with the data. en Wed, 08 Jul 2026 08:52:55 +0200 https://btcsignal.io/articles/calendar-test.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/calendar-test.html Wed, 08 Jul 2026 08:52:55 +0200 One indicator failed, seven got stronger. The full results of turning the oil regime-marker test on this website's own dashboard, and the honest answer to 'why keep the one that failed?' https://btcsignal.io/articles/oil-anomaly.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/oil-anomaly.html Tue, 07 Jul 2026 23:17:21 +0200 The strangest feature in this website's ML rankings, resolved: XGBoost used the oil price to memorize which macro era a row belonged to. A new caveat for every SHAP ranking, here and elsewhere. https://btcsignal.io/articles/gradual-so-far.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/gradual-so-far.html Tue, 07 Jul 2026 22:47:58 +0200 Six months of Fed balance-sheet growth under a technical name: $189 billion since December, against $3 trillion in 2020. The gradual phase of 'gradual, then big' is on script. The big one has not arrived, and bitcoin fell anyway. https://btcsignal.io/articles/sells-the-underlying.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/sells-the-underlying.html Tue, 07 Jul 2026 22:12:35 +0200 Strategy's largest bitcoin sale ever was not profit-taking. It was principal, sold at a loss, to pay a coupon the company had just raised. The sequence was published here in June. What remains is arithmetic. https://btcsignal.io/articles/dry-powder.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/dry-powder.html Tue, 07 Jul 2026 21:50:10 +0200 Does rising stablecoin liquidity predict bitcoin? Tested as a level, a flow, and a valuation ratio. On all three it fails the bar that any real indicator has to clear. https://btcsignal.io/articles/power-law-verdict.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/power-law-verdict.html Sun, 21 Jun 2026 10:40:35 +0200 A rigorous academic test confirmed this website's power-law critique, and corrected one claim it advanced without finishing the test. On confirmation, correction, and the discipline of being accurate. https://btcsignal.io/articles/bitcoin-yield.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/bitcoin-yield.html Sat, 20 Jun 2026 22:11:50 +0200 Bitcoin has no cash flows, so every 'yield' on it is a risk premium in disguise. Where the yield comes from, and why the maturity story is half right and half dangerous. https://btcsignal.io/articles/foundation-model.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/foundation-model.html Fri, 19 Jun 2026 15:14:58 +0200 Can AI predict bitcoin? A state-of-the-art tabular foundation model, run on the same walk-forward protocol, landed at a coin flip on daily direction. Why the limit is the market, not the model. https://btcsignal.io/articles/reflexive-machines.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/reflexive-machines.html Fri, 19 Jun 2026 10:05:25 +0200 Strategy, STRC, and Terra-Luna compared at the level of mechanism. Why a reflexive, leveraged bitcoin structure with a discretionary brake is not a Terra-style death spiral. https://btcsignal.io/articles/power-law-taken-seriously.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/power-law-taken-seriously.html Fri, 19 Jun 2026 09:49:53 +0200 The strongest case for the Bitcoin Power Law is a mechanism, not a curve fit. It earns real credit, and it rests on one fitted exponent it declines to test. https://btcsignal.io/articles/gradual-then-big.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/gradual-then-big.html Sun, 07 Jun 2026 10:15:52 +0200 When debt service crowds out the budget, the central bank stops setting the terms. What that gravity well does to non-sovereign assets. https://btcsignal.io/articles/liquidity-counted.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/liquidity-counted.html Wed, 03 Jun 2026 11:38:32 +0200 Why liquidity barely registers in the model when the macro consensus says it should rank #1. https://btcsignal.io/articles/tech-beta-mirage.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/tech-beta-mirage.html Tue, 02 Jun 2026 14:43:16 +0200 The machine looked for what predicts bitcoin. The stock market wasn't there. https://btcsignal.io/articles/power-trendline.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/power-trendline.html Tue, 26 May 2026 15:08:41 +0200 Bitcoin's price-vs-time chart is a power-function regression. The real statistical Power Laws are in the volatility and the return tails. https://btcsignal.io/articles/regime-transitions.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/regime-transitions.html Tue, 26 May 2026 15:08:35 +0200 A Markov map of the composite score, with honest caveats about what 16 years of data can and cannot say, and a visible retraction where regeneration killed a finding. https://btcsignal.io/articles/dam-about-to-break.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/dam-about-to-break.html Tue, 26 May 2026 15:08:31 +0200 Jane Street cut its Bitcoin ETF exposure by 71% in Q1 2026. The price suppression mechanism is unwinding. https://btcsignal.io/articles/forward-simulation.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/forward-simulation.html Tue, 07 Apr 2026 17:58:54 +0200 6 simulated Bitcoin scenarios. 3 DCA strategies. 3 years. Honest results. https://btcsignal.io/articles/signal-dca.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/signal-dca.html Sun, 05 Apr 2026 22:28:50 +0200 Three DCA strategies tested across 8 years. What works, what doesn't, and why. https://btcsignal.io/articles/correlation-analysis.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/correlation-analysis.html Sat, 04 Apr 2026 14:23:36 +0200 Why 13 indicators are really 7 dimensions. Correlation analysis and what changed in response. https://btcsignal.io/articles/composite-score.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/composite-score.html Sat, 04 Apr 2026 12:29:04 +0200 13 indicators, ML-weighted, combined into a single buy/sell score. https://btcsignal.io/articles/shap-analysis.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/shap-analysis.html Sat, 04 Apr 2026 12:29:04 +0200 ML feature importance across three Bitcoin cycles. The prediction model failed. The rankings were more interesting, including the inconvenient ones. https://btcsignal.io/articles/etf-plumbing.html https://btcsignal.io/articles/etf-plumbing.html Fri, 03 Apr 2026 17:11:24 +0200 Why Bitcoin's ETF plumbing is delaying an inevitable repricing.