Bitcoin's price fits a power-function regression on time (R² > 95%) — a power trend, not a statistical Power Law (why the distinction matters). The orange line is the best-fit trend. The bands use an evolving trendline approach: each day's deviation is measured against the regression known at that time, not today's. This produces converging bands — wide early on (volatile, few data points) and narrowing as Bitcoin matures. Blue bands contain 67% of observations, red bands 95%.

The 50-day and 200-day moving averages smooth out short-term noise. When the 50-day crosses above the 200-day, it's a "Golden Cross" (bullish). When it crosses below, it's a "Death Cross" (bearish). These signals historically precede major trend shifts in Bitcoin.

The 200-week moving average is one of Bitcoin's most reliable long-term support levels. BTC has never stayed below this level for extended periods. The distance from this MA indicates how "stretched" the price is — historically, extreme distance above precedes major corrections, while touching or dipping below has marked generational buying opportunities.

The Mayer Multiple is the ratio of Bitcoin's price to its 200-day moving average. Values below 0.8 have historically been strong accumulation zones, while values above 2.4 have preceded major corrections. It measures how "stretched" the price is from its medium-term mean.

The RSI measures the speed and magnitude of recent price changes on a 0-100 scale. Readings below 30 indicate oversold conditions (selling exhaustion), while readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions (buying exhaustion). It's a contrarian momentum indicator — extremes tend to reverse.

The Pi Cycle Top uses the 111-day moving average and 350-day moving average multiplied by 2. When the 111DMA crosses above the 350DMA x 2, it has historically signaled the exact top of each Bitcoin cycle — within 3 days. The name comes from the ratio 350/111 being close to Pi (3.153).

MVRV is the ratio of Bitcoin's market cap to its "realized cap" (each coin valued at the price it last moved on-chain). MVRV below 1 means the market is valued below its aggregate cost basis — historically a generational buying opportunity. Above 3.5 has marked every cycle top. Data from CoinMetrics.

NUPL measures what proportion of Bitcoin's market cap is unrealized profit. It maps directly to market psychology phases: capitulation (<0), hope (0-0.25), optimism (0.25-0.5), belief (0.5-0.75), and euphoria (>0.75). Derived from MVRV: NUPL = 1 - (1/MVRV). Data from CoinMetrics.

The Puell Multiple compares daily miner revenue to its 365-day moving average. Low values (<0.5) indicate miner stress — selling pressure is exhausted, historically marking bottoms. High values (>3) indicate miners earning windfall profits and likely selling, historically marking tops. Data from CoinMetrics issuance values.

Daily total transaction fees paid on the Bitcoin network, measured in native BTC. The chart shows the fee ratio: today's fees divided by the 365-day moving average. Low ratios indicate weak demand for block space, historically associated with market bottoms. High ratios indicate network congestion and speculative activity, often near cycle peaks. Data from CoinMetrics.

M2 is the broadest measure of US money supply — cash, checking, savings, and money market funds. The year-over-year rate of change shows whether liquidity is expanding or contracting. Bitcoin has shown strong correlation with M2 growth: expansion floods the market with capital seeking returns, contraction starves it. Data from FRED (Federal Reserve), updated monthly.

The DXY measures the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies. A strong dollar historically pressures Bitcoin: capital flows toward USD-denominated assets and away from risk assets. A weak dollar provides a liquidity tailwind. This indicator uses the year-over-year rate of change to capture direction rather than absolute level. Data from Yahoo Finance, updated daily on business days.

Realized volatility measures the annualized standard deviation of BTC's daily log returns over a rolling 30-day window. High volatility at cycle lows signals capitulation — sellers are exhausted and price is whipsawing. Low volatility at cycle highs signals complacency — the calm before a major move. This is a contrarian indicator: extreme vol readings tend to mean-revert. Computed from existing price data, no external source needed.