Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
The Exchange Balance Is Just the Flows Added Up
A popular reading of this month's rise says big holders pulled coins off exchanges, so fewer were left to sell, and the price rose. Coins did not leave: 93,338 more sat on exchanges on 15 August than on 1 June, right through the fall. Tested at sixty-one lags over 5,596 days, the daily flow leads nothing, and the one test that supported the story turned out to be a coin flip. The balance itself is not a second measurement: on 5,441 of those days it is the flows added up, to the last digit in the file.
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Market Structure
The Part of the Filing Nobody Read
The first scorecard entry graded a miss, and grading it found a false sentence in the article behind it: a 13F shows more than the shares a firm owns. Read the fourth row and the finding reverses: three of Jane Street's four holdings say the book more than halved, all four say it grew.
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Market Structure
The Coins Now Pay a Different Bill
Strategy is still selling bitcoin every week, but the funding mix has flipped: $943.7m raised from stock over a fortnight against $213.3m from coins. In the week to 9 August none of the bitcoin money reached the dividends; all of it bought back the company's own preferred shares.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
Every Grade Here Has a Vintage
Every grade here was worked out from vendor data as it stood that day, and vendors rewrite old figures later. Rebuilt from git history: the money-supply file had 203 of 206 old rows rewritten back to 2009, yet not one of 5,735 published grades moved. The margin was thinner than it sounds.
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Market Structure
A Bitcoin ETF Is Closing. Bitcoin Is Not the Reason.
Hashdex is winding up its bitcoin fund, by CoinDesk's account the first US spot bitcoin ETF to close. All five reasons the sponsor gives are about running a fund. Its $14.7m is roughly two minutes of ordinary daily trading; two rival funds have taken in $70.45bn.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
Moving Is Not Selling
A wallet flaw is pushing owners to move coins to fresh wallets, and two of this dashboard's gauges cannot tell a move from a sale. Shifting either grade would take 862,812 coins in one day, against 11,163 in the busiest day of exchange flow on record.
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Market Structure
Where the Hedging Happens
The SEC has suspended its own approval of Nasdaq's cash-settled bitcoin options after CME objected. Underneath the turf war: who can bet on bitcoin without a futures account. Spot exchanges' share of daily trading is down two thirds since 2022 on reported volume, a fifth on coins that truly move.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
Bitcoin's Cycle-Top Alarms Never Went Off
Bitcoin set its record high in October 2025 and none of this site's four cycle-top indicators went off. A new paper says they die on a schedule: accurate, then early, then silent. Rerun on fifteen years of prices, the fade is real, and rests on one judgement call about April 2021.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
Fed Rate Decisions Do Not Predict Bitcoin
Every scheduled Fed rate decision from 2015 to 2026, matched against what bitcoin did next. The meeting itself is a non-event. What was decided is not: the month after a change was worse than the month after a hold, by roughly 9 to 19 percentage points.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
The Dashboard Takes the Calendar Test
The oil test, turned inward on all 25 features including the dashboard's own 13. One failed the same way (BTC Fees: 25.9pp pooled, 3.2pp within-year), seven came out stronger, and both indicators kept on economic reasoning alone passed.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
The Oil Anomaly Is a Calendar
Crude oil outranked most dashboard indicators in SHAP importance without being on the dashboard. Resolved: low-oil days saw bitcoin up 71.4% of the time pooled, and the edge collapses to zero within-year. The model learned when each row happened, not what happens next. A new caveat for every feature-importance chart.
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Macro
Thesis · Directional opinion
Gradual, So Far
Since December the Fed has ended QT, cut twice, and bought $40 billion of T-bills a month under the name "reserve management purchases": an almost exact rerun of 2019's "this is not QE". The framing half of the June prediction is behaving, the magnitude half is not, and bitcoin fell 31% anyway.
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Market Structure
Thesis · Directional opinion
Then It Sells the Underlying
Strategy's largest bitcoin sale ever: 3,588 BTC at roughly $60,000 against a $75,476 cost basis, to pay preferred dividends it had just raised to 12%. Principal, sold at a loss, to meet a fixed coupon: the sequence published here in June.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
The Dry Powder Myth
Rising stablecoin supply is crypto's favourite "dry powder" indicator. Tested against DefiLlama's full history three ways, it fails: the 0.84 level correlation is a trend artifact, the flow carries no lead, and the valuation version (SSR) is non-monotonic noise. Not added to the dashboard.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
Bitcoin Has No Power Law
An academic preprint (Baquero & Menezes, Porto) ran the full Clauset-Shalizi-Newman protocol on bitcoin's power law. It confirms the price "law" is a trendline, and corrects this website on one claim it should have tested: the return tail is better fit by a lognormal.
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Market Structure
Thesis · Directional opinion
A Coupon Is Not a Cash Flow
Bitcoin treasury companies are pivoting to "5-25% yield machines." But bitcoin has no cash flows, so every yield on it is a risk premium in disguise. The four places the yield actually comes from, and why the 2022 lending graveyard is the version that broke.
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Machine Learning
Methodology · Falsifiable
A Foundation Model Can't Beat a Coin Flip on Bitcoin
A pretrained tabular foundation model (TabICL) run on the same walk-forward protocol landed at 49.1% on bitcoin direction: a coin flip, the same wall the project's XGBoost and LSTM hit. The bottleneck is the target, not the model.
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Market Structure
Thesis · Directional opinion
Three Reflexive Machines
Strategy (MSTR), its STRC preferred, and Terra-Luna are all reflexive machines. But only Terra carried an automatic, unbounded, code-enforced self-destruct. Why "the next Luna" is the wrong frame.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
The Power Law, Taken Seriously
The serious version of the Bitcoin Power Law, Giovanni Santostasi's, is a causal mechanism, not a curve fit. Credit where it is due, and the one fitted exponent (adoption as time cubed) the whole tower rests on.
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Macro
Thesis · Directional opinion
Gradual, Then Big
US net interest outlays passed defense spending in fiscal 2024 and cleared $1 trillion in 2025. When debt service crowds out the discretionary budget, the central bank stops setting the terms. Bitcoin sits at the bottom of the resulting gravity well, without needing to be named.
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Machine Learning
Thesis · Directional opinion
Liquidity, Already Counted
US M2 ranked top-5 in only 3 of 12 rounds: liquidity's effects are already priced into Power Law and Fees. The model preferred the receipt to the cause.
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Machine Learning
Thesis · Directional opinion
The Tech-Beta Mirage
Equity indices contribute only mid-pack, macro-flavored signal: never leading, strongest in the 2022-23 window, redundant with DXY and M2.
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Backtest
Methodology · Falsifiable
Does the Signal Actually Work?
Three DCA strategies, 12 entry points. Nearly all of the edge is exposure, not timing skill, and the test is in-sample.
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Forward Simulation
Methodology · Falsifiable
What If? Stress-Testing the Future
6 scenarios from bull run to 75% crash, 40 heavy-tailed paths each (Student-t, GARCH), 3 DCA strategies through every one. Medians with ranges. The signal amplifies exposure: that's a feature and a risk.
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Market Structure
Thesis · Directional opinion
Update on the Dam (Jane Street Cuts Its BTC ETF Exposure)
Jane Street cut IBIT ~71% and FBTC ~60% in Q1 2026. A 13F shows only the long leg, so a basis-trade unwind is the most plausible reading, not a fact.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
It's a Power Trendline, Not a Power Law
Bitcoin's famous price-vs-time chart is a power-function regression, not a statistical Power Law. But the daily return tail (index ~2.7) and volatility autocorrelation (decays as lag^-0.33) are genuine Power Laws. The label is on the wrong object.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
Sticky States, Brief Transitions: A Markov Map of the Composite Score
A Markov map of the composite: 84% of days bullish, 56% of moves reversed within three days. Includes a visible retraction where a pipeline fix killed the original finding.
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Market Structure (Background)
Thesis · Directional opinion
The Dam and the River: Why Bitcoin's ETF Plumbing Is Delaying an Inevitable Repricing
The in-kind ETF model hands Authorized Participants control over Bitcoin sourcing. Because a liquid CME futures market exists, APs can hedge with paper contracts and delay spot purchases. The argument: this is temporary, with the timing explicitly uncertain.
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Machine Learning
Methodology · Falsifiable
SHAP Analysis: Which Indicators Actually Matter
XGBoost and LSTM across three cycles. Corrected ranking counts, plus the anomalies that don't fit, including oil ranking top-5 in 7 of 12 rounds.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
How the Composite Score Works
13 indicators, each graded on a 0-100 scale, combined with SHAP-informed, hand-fixed weights into a single score. From raw data to grade points to weighted average to verdict.
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Methodology
Methodology · Falsifiable
The Illusion of Diversification: Why 13 Indicators Are Really 7 Dimensions
The correlation matrix shows the 13 indicators are really 7 dimensions. Why cluster-correction was tested, then dropped.
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Interactive Tool
Methodology · Falsifiable
DCA Strategy Comparison
Pick any start date and base amount. Compare Standard DCA, Power Law DCA, and Signal DCA side by side with real historical data.
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