The methodology articles on this site earn their credibility by being checkable. The thesis articles, the directional ones, spend credibility instead: they make claims about what will happen, and a claim about the future is worth nothing unless it is written down before the fact and graded honestly after.
This page is where that happens. Every directional call gets an entry with the date it was made, a resolution condition specific enough to be settled, and a status. When one resolves, it is marked hit, miss, or partial, and the miss stays exactly as visible as the hit. The point is not to be right. It is to keep a record honest enough that being wrong has a cost, which is the only thing that makes being right mean anything.
This scorecard was seeded in June 2026 from the existing thesis articles. The wording and confidence on each entry are the author's and will be revised in place as evidence arrives; revisions are noted, not hidden.
Jane Street's Q2 2026 13F will show its IBIT and FBTC positions flat-to-lower again, consistent with a continued wind-down of the ETF basis trade rather than a re-entry.
OTC desk balances keep draining over the next year, with no sustained recovery back above roughly 150,000 BTC.
The in-kind ETF suppression mechanism is temporary: within this cycle, spot price discovery reasserts and Bitcoin re-rates upward from the in-kind-era lows.
The next large US monetary accommodation arrives framed as an emergency facility (regional-bank stress, a failed long-end Treasury auction, or a foreign-reserve dislocation), not as an announced change of regime.
Nothing here has resolved yet, which is the honest state of a scorecard started in mid-2026. The first real test is the Q2 13F in August. Check back then, and hold the record to it.