Predictions Scorecard
A dated, scored record of every directional call made here. Updated as claims resolve.
The methodology articles on this site earn their credibility by being checkable. The thesis articles, the directional ones, spend credibility instead: they make claims about what will happen, and a claim about the future is worth nothing unless it is written down before the fact and graded honestly after.
This page is where that happens. Every directional call gets an entry with the date it was made, a resolution condition specific enough to be settled, and a status. When one resolves, it is marked hit, miss, or partial, and the miss stays exactly as visible as the hit. The point is not to be right. It is to keep a record honest enough that being wrong has a cost, which is the only thing that makes being right mean anything.
One deliberate boundary: these are structural and factual calls, about filings, flows, and policy mechanics that resolve against a public record. They are not price-direction predictions. This site does not tell you where Bitcoin is going or what to buy; it makes claims that can be checked, and keeps score of them.
This scorecard was seeded in June 2026 from the existing thesis articles. The wording and confidence on each entry are the author's and will be revised in place as evidence arrives; revisions are noted, not hidden.
Open
Made 2026-07-07 · Resolves by 2026-10-31
Unless bitcoin recovers above Strategy's cost basis (about $75,500) or the company restores share issuance as its primary funding source, its Q3 2026 preferred distributions will again be funded at least in part by bitcoin sales.
Resolution condition: Strategy's 8-K filings through 2026-10-31 disclose further bitcoin sales used to fund preferred dividends or to replenish the USD Reserve after such payments. If the quarter's distributions are covered without bitcoin sales (for example, by resumed ATM issuance) while bitcoin stays below the cost basis, this resolves a miss. If bitcoin trades back above ~$75,500 for a sustained period, the entry is voided as untestable (the premise lapsed), not scored.
Confidence: Medium. Source: Then It Sells the Underlying. Note: the June articles that anticipated the first sale were not entered here in advance; this entry is the forward-looking claim, made before the evidence, which is the only kind this scorecard counts.
Open
Made 2026-05-15 · Resolves ~mid-Aug 2026
Jane Street's Q2 2026 13F will show its IBIT and FBTC positions flat-to-lower again, consistent with a continued wind-down of the ETF basis trade rather than a re-entry.
Resolution condition: the Q2 2026 13F (due ~14 August 2026) shows IBIT and FBTC holdings at or below the Q1 levels. A material increase resolves this a miss.
Confidence: Medium. Source: Update on the Dam. A 13F shows only the long leg, so this is a directional read, not a certainty (the article weighs the alternatives).
Open
Made 2026-05-15 · Review 2027-05
OTC desk balances keep draining over the next year, with no sustained recovery back above roughly 150,000 BTC.
Resolution condition: CryptoQuant-tracked OTC desk balance stays below ~150,000 BTC through May 2027 without a multi-month reversal. A durable climb back above that level resolves this a miss.
Confidence: Medium. Source: Update on the Dam. The earlier "depleted by July 2026" framing was a straight-line guess and has been replaced with this horizon; the direction is the claim, not the exact date.
Interim check (2026-07-07): no public CryptoQuant print shows a sustained recovery above ~150,000 BTC; no fresh mid-2026 figure was published in free sources to confirm the level either way. Open, leaning intact.
Open
Made 2026-06 · Multi-year, open-ended
The next large US monetary accommodation arrives framed as an emergency facility (regional-bank stress, a failed long-end Treasury auction, or a foreign-reserve dislocation), not as an announced change of regime.
Resolution condition: the next episode that expands the Fed balance sheet by a comparable magnitude to 2020 or March 2023 is introduced through an emergency facility rather than a planned policy pivot. Open-ended; reviewed when such an episode occurs.
Confidence: Medium. Source: Gradual, Then Big.
Interim check (2026-07-07): the gradual phase is running on script: QT ended December 1, 2025 after repo-market stress, and the Fed has since grown its balance sheet by $200B+ under the label "reserve management purchases" (total ~$6.74T at June 24, 2026), with the Standing Repo Facility absorbing year-end strain. Technical labels, no announced regime change. Magnitude remains far below 2020 or March 2023, so the entry's trigger has not fired. Open. Full status report, with primary-source figures: Gradual, So Far.
Nothing here has resolved yet, which is the honest state of a scorecard started in mid-2026. The first real test is the Q2 13F in August. Check back then, and hold the record to it.