Why Not Equal Weights?
Across 12 walk-forward training rounds spanning four Bitcoin market cycles, the same indicator finished first in 11 of them. Power Law Position. The SHAP analysis was unambiguous.
Equal weighting would have buried that finding. Thirteen indicators at roughly 8% each assumes every reading carries the same information. They don't. RSI provides useful short-term context but has minimal standalone value; Power Law has anchored every cycle since 2011. Treating them as equals dilutes the strong and inflates the weak.
The dashboard weights come straight from the data. SHAP analysis from the ML pipeline measured each indicator's actual contribution to prediction accuracy, and those numbers were normalized into the figures shown below.
The 13 Indicators and Their Weights
Weights are derived from SHAP feature importance (XGBoost + LSTM, walk-forward validated across 4 market cycles), normalized to include DXY and Volatility. Power Law at 17% reflects its dominance as the #1 feature in 11 of 12 training rounds.
Valuation (41%): Power Law Position (17%), 200-Week MA Distance (12%), MVRV Ratio (7.5%), Puell Multiple (4.7%). The heaviest cluster because SHAP consistently identified long-term valuation as the most important dimension.
On-chain demand (11%): BTC Transaction Fees (11.2%). SHAP #3 overall.
Mean reversion (9%): Mayer Multiple (9.3%). SHAP #4.
Cycle timing (15%): Pi Cycle Top (8.4%), 50/200 DMA Cross (6.5%).
On-chain sentiment (6%): NUPL (5.6%).
Macro (9%): M2 Money Supply (6.5%), DXY Dollar Index (2.8%).
Momentum + Volatility (8%): RSI (4.7%), 30-Day Volatility (3.7%).
The Formula
Each indicator produces a daily grade (A through F) that converts to points: A = 10, B = 7.5, C = 5, D = 2.5, F = 0. The composite is a weighted average:
Score = sum(gradePoints[i] x weight[i]) / sum(weight[i])
Missing indicators are excluded rather than scored as neutral. The score ranges from 0 to 10, with a historical mean of 5.4.
Verdicts
The score maps to buy/sell verdicts, with boundaries calibrated via Bayesian optimization on held-out data:
5.5 and above: Strong Buy (5x your base amount)
4.5 to 5.49: Accumulate (3x)
4.1 to 4.49: Hold (1x)
3.8 to 4.09: Reduce (0.5x)
Below 3.8: Take Profit (sell 2.3% of stack per day)
Cash from Take Profit is redeployed during the next buying period. Market profits fund the next accumulation, not your wallet.
Composite vs Power Law Alone
The backtest analysis showed that Power Law Position alone, SHAP's #1 indicator, produces a better return per dollar invested than the full 13-indicator composite. The composite builds a larger total portfolio, but at higher out-of-pocket cost.
The reason lies in the grade distributions. Power Law calls for "hold at base amount" on 43% of days; the composite calls for "buy 5x" on 46%. Power Law also sells more often, with a D grade firing on 11% of days, generating more cash for redeployment.
The other twelve indicators add context for reading market conditions, and each has its own chart and grade on the dashboard. Averaged into a composite, they do not improve DCA timing. That tracks with the SHAP finding. Long-term valuation is the strongest signal, and Power Law captures it.
What the Score Does Not Do
The composite score is not a price prediction. The backtest shows it does not beat Standard DCA on pure timing: same dollars in, same result out. Its value sits in capital allocation: flagging the days when conditions favor deploying more.
The score updates daily and moves slowly. It is built for investors who measure time in months, not minutes.